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Change of the LED industry regional pattern
After years of rapid growth, the global LED industry is gradually entering a plateau period, slowing down. China's market share continues to rise, playing an increasingly important role.
According to LEDinside statistics show that in the field of upstream LED chips, China market size of 13.9 billion yuan in 2016, year-on-year growth of 9%, chip GuoChanLv rose to 76%, the top 10 manufacturers, share rose to 77%; In the field of packaging and packaging, the market size reached 58.9 billion yuan in 2016, up 6% from the same period last year, and the domestic production rate increased to 67%, and the proportion of the top ten cities increased to 43%.
'at present, the technological gap between the Taiwan and Taiwan LED companies is narrowing,' said yu bin, analyst at LEDinside. 'mainland manufacturers have a clear advantage in the cost performance.' From now on, the manufacturers of the expansion are mainly concentrated in the mainland, which predicts that the future LED localization rate will continue to improve.
In addition to the upstream LED chip links, in the LED packaging process, the industry is also entering a flat development period. The industry forecasts that the compound growth rate will be only about 6 per cent between 2015 and 2020, a much slower pace than in previous years.
"Although the growth rate of the industry has slowed significantly, the industrial regional pattern is changing, and global packaging capacity is accelerating to China." Mr Yu said that like some big international plants, such as philips and samsung, it is ramping up capacity in China's OEM factories.
Because of cost pressures, many of the country's LED companies are also moving from the pearl river delta to other areas, such as wood linson and others that have begun to try to transfer factories in places like jiangxi and jiangsu. In addition, as the industrial landscape is becoming clearer, industry giants have emerged, and some signs of the transformation of some small and medium-sized enterprises into other industries are beginning to emerge.
Another research firm, DIGITIMES, recently noted that China's LED packaging industry will continue to grow in 2017, given that demand for LED products such as large LED displays is growing rapidly. In addition, China's LED epitaxial wafer and chip makers are expected to account for more than 50 per cent of global production by 2017.
New technologies are being used to drive growth
LEDinside research associate store in thought, looking ahead to 2017, LED the market remains competitive, companies will accelerate to display small spacing, infrared and ultraviolet LED niche market in order to profit, forecasts the global LED market output value will reach $2017 in 15.4 billion, the year growth of 4%.
"The market for small LED screens has become a battleground for the military." Yu said that because the small spacing LED display LED to a geometric increase in the number of LED USES, it attracted many Chinese LED factories to expand capacity to attack the market pie. In addition, infrared LED has unlimited business opportunities in security, iris recognition and VR applications.
Another important thing in 2017 is that microled products will be available. In the eyes of experts, microleds are the second-generation display technology that has the opportunity to replace OLED panels, which has attracted many brands to invest in research and development. Although it is still quite remote to replace tft-lcd and OLED displays at this stage, some manufacturers have planned to launch relevant applications, and LEDinside expects to have microled products in place in 2017.
According to sun yat-sen university - joint, an assistant professor in the college of engineering at Carnegie Mellon university Liu Zhaojun introduction, is considered to be ideal for the next generation of micro LED display technology, its application will include large and medium size outdoor/indoor large screen, desktop/notebook computer monitors, mobile phone/digital camera/portable projector screen, smart watches, bracelets and wearable products.
Other niche markets, such as industrial lighting, automotive LED and LED filament lamps, are also wildly popular. Wang Juxian LEDinside analyst believes that global industrial lighting market size for $2.932 billion in 2016, after a few years with the growth rate of more than 15% growth, predicts 2020, the size of the market will reach $5.204 billion.
"At present, automotive LED the trend the most explosive, car to light, tail light, etc. Choose LED the way more and more, due to the small volume, strong brightness, LED up the car design aesthetic feeling." Wang zhongwei, deputy director of the million light vehicle center.
Market price or small increase
As the cost of raw materials in upstream has risen, the LED industry has entered a wave of full price increases. In may last year, Taiwan's chip switched on the first wave of chip price rises, followed by a rise in the price of three of China's photovoltaic and hucan photovoltaics. At present, the price surge has been transmitted to end-consumption applications. The industry forecasts that the LED industry will maintain its current situation in 2017, and there is even room for further incremental price increases.
LEDinside brand director wang believes that since 2016, the LED industry successively in the five round of price increases, price increase is the main factors of the supply side rising prices of raw materials, as well as the small spacing on demand rapid growth in the field of LED display this segment.
In his view, the price of LED chips fell sharply in the first two years, so the price increase in 2016 was actually a rebound after the collapse. On the other hand, the shortage of LED products due to the price increase is not a complete reversal of the market, but a structural shortage.
Due to the current rise in price is mainly cost factor, demand growth benefit of enterprise is not much, so prices benefited range relatively limited, mainly in the display supply chain and have the ability to pass on the cost of downstream production. Most of the downstream manufacturers still face the adverse situation of rapid growth in demand and non-material costs, thus affecting profitability.
In view of the current of the LED, LED by three Ann and electricity, leading enterprises in the LED chip market price game, wang, 2017 chip makers should adopt a reasonable strategy, avoid the "prisoner's dilemma", maintain industry into the cooperative game model, the last 2016 years don't drop the price rise, avoid vicious competition back into a price war.